The likelihood, in our base-case scenario, of a 5.0% rebound in global GDP this year after a sharp contraction by 4.0% in 2020, even if this contraction and ensuing recovery varies considerably between countries.Р вЂќР вЂћbout 30% of our bank ratings globally currently carry negative outlooks or are on CreditWatch with negative implications.The unprecedented direct support that governments provide to their corporate and household sectors, which we expect they will withdraw gradually and cautiously and.The substantial support and flexibility that banking systems are receiving from public authorities to entice them to continue lending to households and corporates, whether in the form of liquidity or credit guarantees, and relief on minimum regulatory capital and liquidity requirements.The generally strong capital and liquidity position of banks globally at the onset of the pandemic, supported by a material strengthening in bank regulations over the past 10 years.Yet, our central scenario remains that bank ratings will stay largely resilient for four key reasons:

Earnings pressure and other factors have reignited consolidation in a number of markets-including the U.S., Spain, Italy, and Saudi Arabia-leading to some rating actions in recent months.Р вЂќР’В«ank ratings across the world remain under pressure from the repercussions of the pandemic.

Although the asset quality picture is likely to remain blurry until much later in 2021, earnings recovery prospects and business model resilience will continue to be key considerations as we review banks during the year.

Slightly less than one-third of our bank ratings globally carry a negative outlook or are on CreditWatch with negative implications, mainly due to rating actions we took closer to the onset of the pandemic after we lowered our economic forecasts.

Furthermore, we expect that support from public authorities to households and companies will be only gradually removed as the economic recovery takes hold later this year.

We continue to believe that COVID-19-related downgrades to banks will be limited by banks' strengthened balance sheets over the past 10 years.

Long path tool key 4.8.3